牛津大学：加快能源转型可节省12万亿！

译介 2023-06-20

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长期以来，有观点认为人类向可再生能源转型要花费巨额成本，是个“不合算”的买卖。但一项来自英国牛津大学的研究却反驳了这一点。

该研究显示：人类如果从化石能源转向可再生能源，到2050年可节省12万亿美元。

研究团队何以得出可再生能源更“省钱”的结论呢？我们一起看文章。

Switching to renewable energy could save trillions - study

牛津大学研究：人类若转向可再生能源，可节省数万亿美元

Switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy could save the world as much as $12tn (£10.2tn) by 2050, an Oxford University study says.

牛津大学的一项研表明，人类若由化石能源转向可再生能源，到2050年就可为世界节省多达12万亿美元（10.2万亿英镑）。

The report said it was wrong and pessimistic to claim that moving quickly towards cleaner energy sources was expensive.

该研究报告称，对“快速转向清洁能源的成本很高”的断言并不正确，也过于悲观。

Gas prices have soared on mounting concerns over energy supplies.

天然气价格飙升的同时，人们对能源供应的担忧日益严重。

But the researchers say that going green now makes economic sense because of the falling cost of renewables.

但是研究人员认为，可再生能源成本在下降，因此绿色环保具有经济意义。

"Even if you're a climate denier, you should be on board with what we're advocating," Prof Doyne Farmer from the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School told BBC News.

牛津大学马丁学院新经济思维研究所的多恩·法默教授对BBC表示：“即使你否认气候变化是由人类活动引起的，你也应该赞同我们的主张。”

"Our central conclusion is that we should go full speed ahead with the green energy transition because it's going to save us money," he said.

他说：“我们的核心结论就是，我们应该全速推进向绿色能源的转型，因为这将为我们节省资金。”

The report's findings are based on looking at historic price data for renewables and fossil fuels and then modelling how they're likely to change in the future.

该报告的结论基于对可再生能源和化石能源历史价格数据的研究，并对这两者在未来可能发生的变化进行建模。

The data for fossil fuels goes from 2020 back more than 100 years and shows that after accounting for inflation, and market volatility, the price hasn't changed much.

化石能源的数据可从2020年向前追溯100多年，若将通货膨胀和市场波动考虑在内，其价格并没有太大变化。

Renewables have only been around for a few decades, so there's less data. But in that time continual improvements in technology have meant the cost of solar and wind power have fallen rapidly, at a rate approaching 10% a year.

而可再生能源仅诞生了几十年，所以相关数据较少。但就在这几十年里，随着技术的不断进步，太阳能和风能的成本以每年约10%的速度迅速下降。

The report's expectation that the price of renewables will continue to fall is based on "probabilistic" modelling, using data on how massive investment and economies of scale have made other similar technologies cheaper.

有数据表明，大规模投资和规模经济降低了这类技术的成本。基于这些数据建成的“概率”模型，该研究报告预测：可再生能源的价格未来将继续下降。

"Our latest research shows scaling-up key green technologies will continue to drive their costs down, and the faster we go, the more we will save," says Dr Rupert Way, the report's lead author from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

该研究报告的主要作者、牛津大学史密斯企业与环境学院的鲁伯特·韦博士表示：“我们的最新研究表明，扩大关键绿色技术的规模将继续使其成本下降，而且我们前进越快，节省的就越多。”

Wind and solar are already the cheapest option for new power projects, but questions remain over how to best store power and balance the grid when the changes in the weather leads to fall in renewable output.

风能和太阳能已经是新电力项目最节约成本的选择，但天气变化会导致可再生能源产量下降。如何最大程度地储存电力、平衡电网，这一问题仍有待解决。

Cost of net zero

净零排放成本

Back in 2019 Philip Hammond, then Chancellor of the Exchequer wrote to the prime minister to say that the cost of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in the UK would be more than £1tn. This report says the likely costs have been over-estimated and have deterred investment.

早在2019年，英国时任财政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德曾在写给首相的信中指出，到2050年，英国为实现温室气体净零排放的成本将超过1万亿英镑。而该研究报告指出，这一预期成本被高估了，阻碍了投资。

It also says predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the cost of keeping global temperatures rises under 2 degrees would correspond to a loss of GDP by 2050 were too pessimistic. The transition to renewables was, it says, likely to turn out to be a "net economic benefit".

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测，到2050年，将全球气温上升控制在2摄氏度以内的成本与GDP损失相当。该研究报告也指出这种预测过于悲观，称向可再生能源的转变可能会成为一种“净经济效益”。

今日词汇

renewable energy 可再生能源

fossil fuels 化石能源

inflation n. 通货膨胀

market volatility 市场波动

scale up 按比例增加

net zero 净零排放

greenhouse gas 温室气体

net economic benefit 净经济效益

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

政府间气候变化专门委员会